Ten teams have already booked their Super Regional flights. Six regionals are still alive heading into Monday, and five of them come down to a single game.
The bracket the committee handed out last Monday and the bracket left standing this Monday are not the same shape. Three hosts are out. Two more are one bad inning from joining them. The lower seed has won at every layer of this tournament.
The Clinched Ten
The teams already through to Super Regional weekend:
Alabama (Tuscaloosa) survived an 11-inning regional final to beat Oklahoma State 9-7. Georgia (Athens) handled Liberty in two straight after weather suspended the opener. Kansas (Lawrence) outlasted Arkansas 13-10 in the regional final. Mississippi State (Starkville) ran through Louisiana in two games on the back end. North Carolina (Chapel Hill) beat East Carolina twice in the same regional after the Pirates' 14-inning Friday marathon. Oregon (Eugene) closed out Oregon State 4-1. Texas (Austin) finished UC Santa Barbara 6-4. Seven hosts — exactly the kind of weekend the top of the bracket signed up for.
The other three are stories.
Ole Miss (Lincoln) beat Arizona State 7-6 in 14 innings on Friday, then beat them again 5-4 in 10 on Sunday — the Sun Devils' second extra-inning loss to the same team in the same regional. Ole Miss is moving on; ASU is going home with a 21-out-getting performance that did not net them a single win against the team they had to beat.
Cal Poly (Los Angeles) is the surprise of the bracket. The No. 3 seed in UCLA's regional won three straight: Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, and Saint Mary's again 5-2 on Sunday after the Gaels had already eliminated the No. 1 overall seed. UCLA's bracket produced exactly zero wins for the top two seeds. Cal Poly is in the Supers.
Little Rock (Hattiesburg) is the only No. 4 seed still standing. The Trojans beat host Southern Miss in the opener, beat Jacksonville State on Saturday, and finished Jax State 6-3 in the regional final. A Sun Belt 4-seed is one weekend from Omaha.
The Monday Six
Six regional finals still on the schedule — and only one of them is the traditional "winner's-bracket team needs one, loser's-bracket survivor needs two" setup. The other five are winner-take-all because the loser's-bracket survivor already took down the unbeaten team on Sunday.
Tallahassee (12 p.m. ET): St. John's vs. Florida State. The lone undefeated regional final. The Red Storm beat the No. 1 host on Friday and have not lost since. Florida State has won three straight elimination games — Coastal Carolina, Northern Illinois in 10 innings, and Northern Illinois again. St. John's needs one win. Florida State needs two. If FSU takes Game 1, the "if necessary" game starts at 4 p.m. ET.
Atlanta (3 p.m. ET): Georgia Tech vs. Oklahoma. Winner-take-all. The Sooners beat the Jackets 15-8 on Sunday to even this regional after coming up through the losers' bracket. One game decides it.
Auburn (6 p.m. ET): Auburn vs. Milwaukee. Winner-take-all. The Panthers' Friday-night statement — a 13-8 takedown of the No. 4 national seed — looked like a one-day cameo by Sunday night, when Auburn beat them 8-1 to even the regional. One more game.
Gainesville (6 p.m. ET): Florida vs. Troy. Winner-take-all. The Trojans beat Miami in losers' bracket play Sunday, then beat host Florida 16-11 in the regional final opener. Troy is one win from putting a Sun Belt 3-seed in the Supers.
Morgantown (6 p.m. ET): West Virginia vs. Kentucky. Winner-take-all. Kentucky won the 2-3 opener on Friday and the winners' bracket final on Saturday, only to drop the regional opener 11-9 to a West Virginia team that has now won three elimination games in a row.
College Station (9 p.m. ET): Texas A&M vs. USC. Winner-take-all. The Trojans beat the Aggies 14-3 on Sunday. If USC wins again, they become the second non-host to take a regional in Texas this weekend.
The Dead Hosts and the Walking Wounded
Three hosts are already out. UCLA — the No. 1 overall seed — lost twice in three days, to Saint Mary's on Friday and Saint Mary's again on Sunday. Southern Miss dropped its opener 7-4 to Little Rock and lost a 15-11 marathon to Virginia on Saturday to end its weekend. Nebraska went home after Ole Miss handled them on Saturday and Arizona State sent the Cornhuskers out the back door on Sunday.
Six more hosts are still alive. Five of them — Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, and West Virginia — face one-game, winner-take-all regional finals on Monday after their loser's-bracket opponents knocked them down a peg Sunday night. Florida State has the longest road of any host left, having already won three straight elimination games to reach Monday at all; the Seminoles still need two wins against St. John's to advance.
Some Super Regional Pairings Already Locked
A handful of next weekend's matchups are already decided on paper, with both sides confirmed:
- Cal Poly advances to face the Morgantown winner (West Virginia or Kentucky). - Ole Miss advances to face the Auburn winner (Auburn or Milwaukee). - North Carolina advances to face the College Station winner (Texas A&M or USC). - Little Rock advances to face the Gainesville winner (Florida or Troy).
The other four supers will not lock until Monday's hosts settle their fates and the bracketing math fills in. Several of those pairings will hinge on whether the host or the upstart wins out tonight.
Ten teams are already packing for next weekend. The other six bids get answered today.